Let’s take a look at all the games, using spreads published on Tuesday (unless there’s a drastic change since then for some reason).
Last Week: 8-8
Year to Date: 17-15
WAS @ NYG (-3.5)
Okay, so maybe Washington isn’t the dumpster fire I thought they would be. I credit this to two reasons:
1. Pot Roast. Terrence Knighton has anchored Joe Barry’s 3-4 defense and made it into a Top 10 unit two weeks into the season.
2. Bill Callahan. His work with this offensive line is drawing rave reviews from players and coaches alike, and their running game stats are backing it up.
I would love nothing more than for this Giants team to go 0-16. Not that I hate them, I just think it would be fun for a New York team feat. Coughlin and Eli to go through an entire season without a win. Oh the headlines we would get.
Unfortunately, it’s not going to happen. And also unfortunately, I took the Redskins.
I took the Redskins.
CIN @ BAL (-2.5)
Through two weeks it’s pretty clear that the Bengals are a much better team than the Ravens. Things tend to even themselves out in the AFC North, but I worry that Baltimore doesn’t have the offensive firepower to compete in this division.
Then again, Andy Dalton usually plays worse in big games and against division foes…and the Ravens REALLY need
I’m taking the Ravens.
SD @ MIN (-2.5)
The Chargers might have the 3rd best offense in the AFC behind the Patriots and Steelers, but I’m still not sold on their defense. Keeping the Vikings under 24 points in Minnesota would be a huge statement…too bad they won’t make it.
I’m taking the Vikings.
OAK @ CLE (-3.5)
Every time the Red Zone Channel flips to this game I’m going to do a lap around my house to keep the blood in my legs flowing. My instincts are telling me to go with Oakland, so I’m pulling a Costanza and running the other way.
I’m taking the Browns.
ATL @ DAL (+1.5)
I made a handful of crazy calls in the Beast Book, but the one I care more about than any other was picking the Falcons to finish 10-6 and win the South. 2-0 is a great start, and in a move that is 100% an emotional hedge, I’m going the other way. Weeden!!!
I’m taking the Cowboys.
TB @ HOU (-6.5)
I still can’t believe this number is at 6.5. Should Ryan Mallett ever be giving 6.5 points to anyone?
Winston got off the snide last week, but I’m guessing this is one of those 2-3 games per year that J.J. Watt single-handedly wins by himself.
(Fantasy Note: I know Mike Evans goose-egged last week, but it sounds like he will be a big part of the game plan this week.)
I’m taking the Texans.
PHL @ NYJ (-2.5)
Classic matchup of the team that couldn’t look any worse against the team that couldn’t look any better.
Make no mistake about it, the Jets are the better team right now in just about every facet. You just have to wonder if the Eagles’ players pride is on the line to the point where they show up and will a win.
It’s probably a good thing this game isn’t at home, because the Philly fans would lose their collective voices booing Chip Kelly if it doesn’t go well.
I’m taking the Eagles.
PIT @ STL (+1.5)
Welcome to your high scoring game of the week. I don’t care that the O/U is 47.0. Pound that Over!
The Steelers aren’t as good as they looked last week, and Frank Cignetti Jr. will find ways to score against that terrible Steeeler secondary. Rams in an upset!
I’m taking the Rams.
NO @ CAR (-3.5)
I’m officially breaking up with “taking the New Orleans Saints.”
Don’t call me, don’t text me, don’t stalk me on Facebook. We’re done.
I’m taking the Panthers.
IND @ TEN (+4.5)
This is an Andy Luck Legacy game right here.
You start off 0-2 and look terrible doing it. You go into Buffalo and lay an egg. You get beat at home on a Monday night. How will you respond?
If Andrew Luck can’t go into Tennessee and out duel Marcus Mariota, I’ll be changing my Super Bowl pick to Tom Brady and the Pats. I probably already should have done that, but I’m giving Mr. Deep Voice one last chance.
And speaking of Mariota, guess how many passes he’s thrown that have traveled over 20 yards in the air?
I think the Colts load the box, press the receivers, and force a few turnovers…but I don’t feel great about it.
I’m taking the Colts.
JAX @ NE (-13.5)
I almost always take the points when the line is this big, and I’m going to do it again, but if ever there was a case to be made against it, it is now.
Tom Brady is carving right now, and I’m pretty sure the “Fueled By Anger” gauge is still on FULL. Praying for a garbage time back door cover.
I’m taking the Jaguars.
SF @ ARI (-6.5)
I’m all in on this Cardinals team and will continue to be until given reason to go the other way.
I know, I know, wins against the Saints and Bears aren’t anything to email home about, but Bruce Arians and Carson Palmer have now won 18 of their last 24 together. Big plays on both sides of the ball, and an emerging rookie in David Johnson who seems like a legit beast.
I’m taking the Cardinals.
CHI @ SEA (+14.5)
As if this line wasn’t big enough, it now looks like Kam Chancellor will be back for this game. Yeah, because the Seattle defense really needed the reinforcement against Jimmy Clausen.
Seahawks pass defense stats since 2010: With Chancellor: 62 TD allowed, 78 INT Without Chancellor: 37 TD allowed, 15 INT
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) September 24, 2015
I see no way the Seahawks lose, but again, the line is just too high.
I’m taking the Bears.
BUF @ MIA (-2.5)
If you took the Dolphins to make the playoffs, you can’t be feeling that great about it right now. The offense has underwhelmed, and the so far the Suh signing hasn’t looked like a slam dunk.
I didn’t pick Miami to make the post-season, and with a game in London looming in Week 4, I think they’re distracted enough to drop this one too.
I’m taking the Bills.
DEN @ DET (+3.5)
3 reasons why I should take Denver.
1. Peyton Manning is always dangerous at night, even as bad as he’s looked the last couple of weeks (h/t Bill Simmons).
2. That Denver defense looks like the BEST in the league right now.
3. Demaryius Thomas is due for breakout games.
So why am I taking the Lions? Because the Broncos have no business going to 3-0. Simple as that.
I’m taking the Lions.
KC @ GB (-6.5)
The spread does feel a point or two too high, but Rodgers is so freaking good at home, how can you go the other way?
If the Chiefs were taking care of the ball right now I’d give them a shot to keep this a field goal game, but they’re gonna have to cut out the turnovers that have plagued them so far this year.
I’m taking the Packers.